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Denise Nakanishi

All Real Estate Is Local! (Market Update)

Ever since the market shifted, I’ve left most market updates to the media.  After all, the market has been consistently spawning the kind of news media seems to love. None-the-less, because all real estate is local, I thought it appropriate to take an off-cycle (outside the normally quarterly reporting period) look at local numbers.  I felt compelled to do this after reading a recent report regarding disconnects in reality and what we’re hearing in the media.  Rather than comparing this year to last, let’s see where the year has taken us.    Puna started the year with 39 sales in Jan.  The median price was $235,000.  By April, the number of sales dropped a bit to 37 but the median price increased to $260,000.  Pricing dipped again in May but sales numbers help fairly steady (35). By June sales were up to 41 and prices inched back up to $230,000.  July sales dropped to 35 but the median price increased to $237,500.  Things continued to be pretty even in August with 34 sales and with a median sales price  of $230,000.  Truth is, if you track the changes since the beginning of the year, not much has changed.  But watch this.  Hilo started the year with only 10 sales.  We saw 13 homes change hands in March, then 14, then 15, then 21 in June.   There were 19 in July and 17 in August.  Even with an August decline, this marks a 42% increase since the beginning of the year!  Prices went from a median of $262,500 in Jan, peaked at $357,500 in May and ended August at $330,000. That’s a 21% increase since the beginning of the year.   So what does this mean?  Nationally, inventory levels are getting back to normal.  In March, The Wall Street Journal (Cyril Moulle-Berteaux) noted that nationally, inventory levels have decreased to an 11 month supply.  It is projected that by the end of 2008, the supply will be down to 7 months.  When we look at our specific neighborhoods, Hilo and Leilani Estates both have less than a year’s inventory.  HPP has 13 months of inventory.  Hawaiian Beaches, Shores, etc has 2 years.  Ainaloa has 1.9 years, Nanawale 2.5 years, Royal Hawaiian Estates 1.5, Ohia Estates 1.5, Mauna Loa Estates 2.5 and Volcano Golf and County Club has 3 years.  To keep these numbers in perspective, remember that only a short time ago, Leilani Estates had a 3 year supply of listings.  It just goes to show that things can shift quickly even in areas with an oversupply.  There’s no denying that there are still problems but now you know, it’s not all gloom and doom when you remember that ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!   

Published Sunday, September 07, 2008 9:48 PM by Denise Nakanishi

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